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Long Cycles

Looking at the 10-year bond yields going back to the 1950’s, two secular cycles are clearly visible in the data. One shows a steady decline in yields from 1981 to approximately 2010. The other cycle denotes a secular upward trend in yields through the postwar years leading up to 1981. The point of all this being that the bull and bear markets in fixed income can last a very long time, even decades. Something to keep in mind.

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Victor A. Canto, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
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